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Giá vàng khó đoán


Nhà đầu tư vàng sẽ đối mặt rủi ro nếu giới đầu cơ quốc tế ồ ạt bán ra chốt lời

Sau khi Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ ( FED) đưa ra các giải pháp cứu các tổ chức tài chính; chuyển đổi Goldman Sachs và Morgan Stanley theo mô hình hoạt động ngân hàng thương mại,... Lập tức thị trường vàng biến động mạnh

Giới phân tích cho rằng vàng đang ở thời điểm hết sức nhạy cảm. Diễn biến của giá vàng gần như chịu tác động từ hoạt động của các tổ chức tài chính tại Mỹ và giới đầu cơ vàng quốc tế.

Ảnh hưởng mạnh từ thị trường tài chính thế giới

Ngày 23-9, giá vàng thế giới thiết lập kỷ lục mới kể từ đợt tăng giá mạnh vào tuần trước, cán mức giá mới 902 USD/ounce, tăng gần 5%. Giá dầu thô cũng trở lại mức 120 USD/thùng. USD mất giá so với các ngoại tệ mạnh khác. Tại TPHCM, giá vàng SJC bán ra có thời điểm leo lên 18,32 triệu đồng/lượng, tăng 500.000 đồng/lượng so với hôm trước. Như vậy, diễn biến của giá vàng tại VN gần như phụ thuộc vào giá vàng thế giới. Trong khi đó, tỉ giá VNĐ/USD ổn định, nếu tính 1 USD là 16.710 đồng thì giá vàng trong nước đã tương đương với thế giới.

Theo ông Nguyễn Thành Long, Tổng Giám đốc Công ty Vàng bạc Đá quý Sài Gòn – SJC, thời gian gần đây, giá vàng chịu ảnh hưởng rất lớn từ những biến động của thị trường tài chính thế giới. Nhà đầu tư dồn vốn sang vàng có thể thành công nếu theo dõi sát sao hoạt động của các tổ chức tài chính hàng đầu ở Mỹ. Giá vàng tăng hay giảm có sự tác động từ hiệu quả kinh doanh của các tổ chức này. Thực tế cho thấy, ngày 18-9, Ngân hàng Lehman Brothers tuyên bố phá sản, tiếp đó tập đoàn bảo hiểm AIG đứng trước nguy cơ sụp đổ..., giới đầu tư tài chính quốc tế bán tháo cổ phiếu, chuyển vốn sang vàng khiến giá vàng thế giới tăng gần 100 USD/ounce. Tại VN, giá vàng cũng tăng khoảng 1,4 triệu đồng.

Khó lường trước rủi ro

Tuy nhiên, nhiều chuyên gia tài chính cảnh báo giá vàng thế giới tăng hay giảm còn phụ thuộc vào động thái mua - bán của giới đầu cơ vàng quốc tế. Thông thường, các đối tượng này thầm lặng giao dịch với nhau, thông tin thường công bố sau khi hoàn tất phi vụ mua - bán. Biểu hiện rõ nhất là ngày 18 và 22-9, Quỹ Đầu tư Gold Shares công bố mua hơn 34 tấn vàng là một trong những yếu tố làm giá vàng tăng mạnh. Tuy nhiên, cách nay khoảng 10 ngày, tổ chức này bán 26 tấn vàng, kéo theo động thái bán ra của các nhà đầu tư khác và một số yếu tố khác, đẩy giá vàng thế giới vào thời điểm đó xuống còn 741 USD/ounce, kéo giá vàng ở VN giảm theo. Nhà đầu tư trong nước sẽ đối mặt rủi ro khi giới đầu cơ quốc tế mạnh tay bán ra chốt lời.

Theo cựu chủ tịch Hội đồng Vàng thế giới Pierre Lassonde, nếu thị trường tài chính tiếp tục có biến cố, ngân hàng trung ương của một số quốc gia không bảo đảm được thanh khoản cho các ngân hàng thương mại, nhiều khả năng các ngân hàng thương mại phải tính đến việc bán vàng dự trữ để tự cứu mình. Khi đó, thị trường vàng sẽ có đợt sụt giá mạnh.

Chịu tác động từ FED

Theo nhà phân tích Edward Meir, vàng bắt đầu tăng giá mạnh khi FED đề xuất Chính phủ Mỹ thông qua gói giải pháp 700 tỉ USD để cứu vãn thị trường tài chính. Khi một lượng lớn USD được tung ra thị trường sẽ làm cho đồng tiền này giảm giá, tăng nguy cơ lạm phát. Vì thế, nhiều nhà đầu tư tìm đến vàng để chống lạm phát. Mặt khác, giải pháp của FED sẽ giúp cho nền kinh tế Mỹ được cải thiện và làm tăng nhu cầu sử dụng nhiên liệu khiến giá dầu cũng leo lên 120 USD/thùng. Mới đây, FED nới lỏng các quy định vay vốn khẩn cấp nên giới đầu tư quan ngại sẽ có một vài thể chế tài chính khác tiếp bước Ngân hàng Lehman Brothers. Do đó, diễn biến của giá vàng sẽ chịu tác động rất lớn từ những giải pháp cứu thị trường tài chính của FED.

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